A model of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees points to a 2.2% COLA increase for 2026, down from an estimated 2.5% a month ago.
The Senior Citizen’s League’s (TSCL) most recent prediction is 0.3 percentage points lower than last year’s COLA of 2.5 percent.
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The 2025 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 2.5 percent for those under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and 2.0 percent for those under the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).
Each month, TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security using our statistical model. “Our model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions,” TSCL says.
The official 2026 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October 2025. The SSA will calculate the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the previous year.
Overpaid Social Security Benefits
The Trump administration announced a new policy to increase the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) efforts to collect overpaid Social Security benefits. Starting on March 27th, seniors receiving accidental overpayments will have 100 percent of their future benefits withheld until they’ve paid back all taxpayer money.
It is reported that the SSA collected an average of $4.2 billion in overpayments per year from fiscal years 2017 to 2023. The agency also ran an average balance of $22.8 billion in uncollected overpayments during the same period.
“The government could send seniors a check worth an expected $495 if it recovered its entire overpaid benefits balance in a typical year, according to a TSCL analysis. “After that, suppose the government continued paying back recovered overpayments as a dividend to retirees,” TSCL said. “In that case, we’d then expect it to be able to increase seniors’ benefits by an average of $77 in a typical year.”
TCSL believes the government should consider giving seniors more time to return overpaid benefits before it starts withholding Social Security checks. Social Security beneficiaries currently have 30 days from being notified of being overpaid to return the funds before the government begins withholding benefits. The Social Security Overpayment Act, which was introduced in the previous Congress but failed to pass, would extend this window to 120 days and provide valuable relief for seniors.
“While The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL) believes overpayments on Social Security benefits should be recouped, we feel it’s important that beneficiaries not face undue pressure from an immediate 100 percent reduction in benefits, ” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton.
“The Senior Citizens League supported the Social Security Overpayment Act in the previous Congress. Had it passed, the bill would have extended the time for the SSA to begin withholding benefits from 30 days to 120 days after notifying a beneficiary of an overpayment. The clawback of payments is especially unfair to seniors who do not have external support to help manage their finances and track their benefits. Many beneficiaries may not be aware of an overpayment and could suddenly find themselves without a check. The time between notification and recoupment should be extended, and we hope that some members of Congress will have the courage to reintroduce the Social Security Overpayment Fairness Act.”