{"id":9653,"date":"2025-02-05T11:15:06","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T11:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=9653"},"modified":"2025-02-05T11:15:06","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T11:15:06","slug":"mortgage-digest-crea-updates-2025-forecast-with-higher-sales-and-price-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=9653","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Digest: CREA updates 2025 forecast with higher sales and price growth"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has raised its 2025 home sale and price growth forecasts slightly compared to its fall projections.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe assumption remains that the combination of two and a half years of pent-up demand and lower borrowing costs, together with the usual burst of spring listings will lead to a rebound in market activity across the country in 2025,\u201d the association said in a release<\/a>. <\/p>\n

It added that the December and fourth-quarter sales figures provide an early indication of what could unfold in the spring market.<\/p>\n

Sales forecast:<\/strong> CREA now expects 532,704 homes to sell via MLS in 2025, an 8.6% increase from 2024. This is up from its previous estimate of 6.6% growth, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated activity at the end of 2024. For 2026, sales are projected to rise another 4.5% to 556,662 units.<\/p>\n

Average price forecast:<\/strong> The national average home price is forecasted to reach $722,221 in 2025, a 4.7% increase year-over-year, and up slightly from its previous +4.4% forecast. CREA expects an additional 3.3% increase in 2026, bringing the average to $746,379.<\/p>\n

While regions like Alberta and Saskatchewan could see sharp price increases due to tight supply, British Columbia and Ontario may experience more moderate growth because of higher inventory.<\/p>\n

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CRA to administer capital gains tax changes despite parliamentary prorogation<\/h2>\n

The Department of Finance has confirmed that the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) will move forward with administering proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, effective June 25, 2024.<\/p>\n

Under the proposed changes unveiled in Budget 2024, the taxable portion of capital gains will increase from 50% to 66.67% for corporations and trusts, as well as for individuals with annual capital gains exceeding $250,000.<\/p>\n

The CRA plans to release updated forms by January 31 and will provide relief from arrears interest and penalties for corporations and trusts with filing deadlines on or before March 3, 2025.<\/p>\n

If Parliament does not pass the legislation when it resumes, or if the government decides not to proceed with the changes, the CRA will cease administering the new rules, according to a statement from the agency.<\/p>\n

In October, economist Jack Mintz cautioned that raising the capital gains inclusion rate could result in the loss of over 414,000 jobs and a significant $90-billion blow to Canada\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

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Consumer spending rebounded in December after slow start<\/h2>\n

Holiday spending gained momentum in December after a sluggish November, as shoppers waited to take advantage of a federal tax holiday on children\u2019s items.<\/p>\n

Retail sales, excluding autos, dipped in November following stronger activity earlier in the fall, according to RBC\u2019s latest Consumer Spending Tracker<\/a>. Spending on categories like hobbies, toys, and games dropped sharply late in November, coinciding with the announcement of the GST\/HST exemption. <\/p>\n

The tax holiday, which began mid-December, likely encouraged consumers to hold off on purchases until they could take advantage of the savings, says report author Carrie Freestone. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe higher spending in December comes as population growth shows signs of slowing, leaving per-capita spending tracking a second consecutive increase in Q4,\u201d Freestone noted.<\/p>\n

While the threat of tariffs under the incoming Trump administration in the U.S. remains a risk, \u201cwe continue to expect lower interest rates will help support stronger real per-capita consumer spending in the year ahead,\u201d Freestone added. <\/p>\n

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2024 Annual Information Return (AIR) filing now open in Ontario<\/h2>\n

Licensed mortgage brokerages and administrators in Ontario can now begin filing their 2024 Annual Information Return (AIR), a mandatory compliance requirement enforced by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA). This year, FSRA has launched the AIR earlier to give businesses additional time to complete their submissions.<\/p>\n

Key details:<\/strong><\/p>\n