{"id":27902,"date":"2026-04-24T18:16:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T18:16:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27902"},"modified":"2026-04-24T18:16:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T18:16:39","slug":"where-would-mortgage-rates-be-without-war-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27902","title":{"rendered":"Where Would Mortgage Rates Be Without War in Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Mortgage rates have had a pretty good April, all things considered.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ve come down about 30 basis points (0.30%) over the past month, despite the conflict in Iran still raging on.<\/p>\n<p>So I was curious where mortgage rates would be without a war in Iran, had it never gotten started at the end of February.<\/p>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget2\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/text\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=169cc4cc198062c0&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;result_count=3&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<p>Back then, we were just below 6% for a 30-year fixed and apparently we\u2019d still be there had history been different.<\/p>\n<p>And while the difference in monthly payment might be negligible, the psychological factor could have been huge for home buyers this spring.<\/p>\n<h2>Mortgage Rates Have a 0.25% \u2018Geopolitical Premium\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-42573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/FreddieMac30yearfixed.png\" alt=\"Freddie Mac 30-year fixed\" width=\"610\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/FreddieMac30yearfixed.png 610w, https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/FreddieMac30yearfixed-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\"><\/p>\n<p>I asked xAI\u2019s Grok where mortgage rates would be sans the conflict in Iran and it told me about a quarter-point lower.<\/p>\n<p>If we use <a href=\"https:\/\/freddiemac.gcs-web.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-declines-further\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Freddie Mac\u2019s latest 30-year fixed reading of 6.23%<\/a>, that would put the popular loan type right below 6%.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, borrowers are still facing rates well into the 6s, which even if not a big payment difference, must not feel as nice as a 5-handle rate.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a reason most prices end in .99. It\u2019s no different with mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>Home buyers would much rather have a 5%-something versus a 6%-something. It just looks better. And I\u2019m sure it feels better too.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, those who\u2019ve been buying homes this spring have had to settle for the higher rates, assuming they didn\u2019t buy down the mortgage rate.<\/p>\n<p>As for why, it\u2019s what Grok coined as a \u201cgeopolitical premium\u201d of about 25 bps.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s how it breaks down:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Pre-conflict 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 5.98%<\/li>\n<li>Minus embedded geopolitical premium today (~25 bps)<\/li>\n<li>Plus\/minus modest natural drift (0\u201310 bps lower)<\/li>\n<li>Mortgage rate range: 5.85% to 6.05%<\/li>\n<li>Midpoint guess: 5.95%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Mortgage Rates Usually Fall During Uncertain Times<\/h2>\n<p>Typically, mortgage rates fall when there\u2019s a war because there\u2019s a flight to safety in bonds.<\/p>\n<p>Investors seek a safe haven in uncertain times. This time is different.<\/p>\n<p>We have a stock market at\/near all-time highs as investors continue to chase higher returns in the face of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance\/beta\/quote\/BZW00:NYMEX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$105+ per barrel oil<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>So really it\u2019s not so much a geopolitical premium as it is an energy price premium, given oil was closer to $70 per barrel pre-conflict.<\/p>\n<p>If we consider the 10-year bond yield, it was just below 4% prior to the war with Iran, and now sits around 4.30%.<\/p>\n<p>This means it\u2019s mostly the difference in yields pushing 30-year fixed mortgage rates higher, and a little bit of the spread widening.<\/p>\n<p>The next question is when can mortgage rates return to pre-war levels? That\u2019s a tougher one to answer because the path remains very unclear.<\/p>\n<div class=\"abh_box abh_box_down abh_box_fancy\">\n<div class=\"abh_tab_content\">\n<section class=\"vcard author abh_about_tab abh_tab\" itemscope=\"\" itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" style=\"display:block\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"> <img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<p>Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"abh_posts_tab abh_tab\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<div class=\"abh_name\">Latest posts by Colin Robertson <span class=\"abh_allposts\">(see all)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=6b6796d2cb72bbab&amp;include_text_results=1&amp;loan_product=PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS&amp;result_count=10&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;redirect_no_results=1&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/where-would-mortgage-rates-be-without-war-in-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates have had a pretty good April, all things considered. They\u2019ve come down about 30 basis points (0.30%) over the past month, despite the conflict in Iran still raging on. So I was curious where mortgage rates would be without a war in Iran, had it never gotten started at the end of February.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[216],"tags":[6967,417,261,2504],"class_list":{"0":"post-27902","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mortgage","8":"tag-iran","9":"tag-mortgage","10":"tag-rates","11":"tag-war"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}