{"id":27635,"date":"2026-04-16T22:44:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T22:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27635"},"modified":"2026-04-16T22:44:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T22:44:03","slug":"stocks-have-touched-record-highs-despite-iran-war-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27635","title":{"rendered":"Stocks have touched record highs despite Iran war. Here&#8217;s why"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292561\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday against a backdrop of war, an oil supply shock and economic forecasts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">warning<\/a> of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict. <\/p>\n<p>Many investors may be thinking: Why? <\/p>\n<p>Largely, it&#8217;s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts. <\/p>\n<p>Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The stock market isn&#8217;t trying to price what&#8217;s happening today,&#8221; said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. &#8220;The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"><\/a>Why stocks have been &#8216;resilient&#8217;<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-4\">S&amp;P 500<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"><\/span><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30. <\/p>\n<p>But stocks have rebounded since then, erasing all losses since the beginning of the war. The S&amp;P 500 closed at an all-time high on Thursday \u2014 about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. That followed a record close on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,&#8221; said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody&#8217;s. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409805\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"><\/span><span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108289219\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire has appeared tenuous, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement. <\/p>\n<p>Nations haven&#8217;t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire&#8217;s end. Vice President JD Vance said \u200bU.S. officials \u2060left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"><\/a>The markets &#8216;have memory&#8217; <\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said \u2014 the so-called &#8220;TACO&#8221; trade, shorthand for &#8220;Trump always chickens out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Investors strongly believe \u2014 and have been conditioned to believe \u2014 he&#8217;s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,&#8221; Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has pushed back on the notion of backing down, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners. <\/p>\n<p>Within days \u2014 after the stock market had cratered more than 12% \u2014 Trump announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs. Stocks then saw one of their biggest daily rallies in history following Trump&#8217;s reversal. <\/p>\n<p>Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks \u2014 which is why they&#8217;ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The markets have memory,&#8221; Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline2\"><\/a>AI stocks and the &#8216;tech boom&#8217;<\/h2>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292448\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&amp;P 500 closed above the 7,000 level for the first time.<\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>One is the investors&#8217; enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s market capitalization, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Those stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,&#8221; Zandi said. &#8220;I think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re in the middle of a &#8220;tech boom&#8221; \u2014 and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409948\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/108292650-17763593001776359295-45306365513-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1776359299&amp;w=750&amp;h=422&amp;vtcrop=y\" alt=\"How to build an investing playbook at record highs\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"><\/span><span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company \u2014 and the earnings backdrop has been &#8220;pretty solid,&#8221; Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP&#8217;s so-called &#8220;big beautiful bill,&#8221; which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline3\"><\/a>Going forward<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,&#8221; Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote Tuesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Even if the conflict is short-lived \u2014 as the broad market expects \u2014 stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it&#8217;s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn&#8217;t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a &#8220;full-blown correction&#8221; or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Everyone thinks they know what the script is,&#8221; Zandi said. &#8220;Now they just need to follow the script. If they don&#8217;t, the market will have some real problems.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Trying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,&#8221; Seydl said. &#8220;It&#8217;s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/16\/stocks-record-highs-iran-war.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. NYSE U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday against a backdrop of war, an oil supply shock and economic forecasts warning of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict. Many investors may be thinking: Why? Largely, it&#8217;s because the stock market is a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[196],"tags":[255,1984,6967,2124,108,10155,2504],"class_list":{"0":"post-27635","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-finance-news","8":"tag-heres","9":"tag-highs","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-record","12":"tag-stocks","13":"tag-touched","14":"tag-war"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}