{"id":27600,"date":"2026-04-15T23:36:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T23:36:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27600"},"modified":"2026-04-15T23:36:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T23:36:30","slug":"why-are-mortgage-rates-falling-with-the-strait-of-hormuz-still-closed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27600","title":{"rendered":"Why Are Mortgage Rates Falling with the Strait of Hormuz Still Closed?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In somewhat astonishing fashion, at least to me, mortgage rates have been falling all month. And by a fair amount.<\/p>\n<p>After a really ugly March, in which rates surged from sub-6% levels to around 6.625%, they\u2019ve since come down quite a bit.<\/p>\n<p>At last glance, the 30-year fixed was back around 6.30%, which by all accounts is a very good average.<\/p>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget2\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/text\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=169cc4cc198062c0&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;result_count=3&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<p>After all, the sub-6% rates were the lowest in 3.5 years, so being just 30 basis points above those levels ain\u2019t so bad.<\/p>\n<p>But how is it even possible given the ongoing geopolitics, which have caused energy prices to soar globally?<\/p>\n<h2>Hope for a Resolution in Middle East Pushes Mortgage Rates Back Down<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-42480\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/mortgageratedrop-1.png\" alt=\"mortgage rate drop\" width=\"610\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/mortgageratedrop-1.png 610w, https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/mortgageratedrop-1-300x209.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\"><\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, mortgage rates are lower because there\u2019s hope of some sort of resolution in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>We already saw talks in Pakistan last weekend, albeit talks that didn\u2019t seem to end with anything positive.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also a ceasefire in effect, which seems to be holding up okay for now.<\/p>\n<p>And now word that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/04\/15\/nx-s1-5786034\/iran-middle-east-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">additional talks are going to take place in Islamabad<\/a>, with Trump telling Maria Bartiromo that, \u201cI view it as very close to being over.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. has initiated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-sanctioned-chinese-tanker-passes-strait-hormuz-despite-us-blockade-data-shows-2026-04-14\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">their own blockade of the Strait<\/a> to exert further pressure on Iran to open the Strait.<\/p>\n<p>With Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116408554531050811\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">saying<\/a> on his Truth Social platform that \u201cChina is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also \u2013 And the World. This situation will never happen again.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This all somehow points to an end to the conflict (color me skeptical), which would ostensibly result in lower oil prices and reduced inflationary concerns.<\/p>\n<p>As such, 10-year bond yields have fallen, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates have dropped about 33 basis points (0.33%) this month, per <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MND<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We aren\u2019t back to normal just yet, but rates are a lot lower than they were in March, which should spell some relief for prospective home buyers.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t know if it\u2019ll entice existing homeowners to apply for a mortgage refinance just yet, but we\u2019re at least moving in the right direction.<\/p>\n<h2>Labor Over Inflation Again If This Proves to Be Short-lived<\/h2>\n<p>I was discussing this very topic over on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7449658877161234432\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">LinkedIn<\/a> with Kevin Peranio, the chief lending offer at PRMG.<\/p>\n<p>I expressed a little bit of disbelief regarding the recent fall in mortgage rates and he aptly pointed out that \u201cgeopolitical events are always seen as a short-term issue going back to WWII.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He added that despite the inflation spike related to energy, everything else was tame and on track, as it had been before this unexpected event (that\u2019s why rates were at 3.5-year lows!).<\/p>\n<p>And he added that, \u201cLabor is long term trending weaker and is a major macro factor. One can argue labor over inflation is still the major macro force.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, it\u2019s a good point and a good reminder that when we zoom out, the same main forces remain in play.<\/p>\n<p>There are lot of concerns about the job market, which translates to lower mortgage rates all else equal. And labor still supersedes inflation for the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>While the Fed doesn\u2019t set consumer mortgage rates, Fed rate expectations play a role in bond prices and their direction.<\/p>\n<p>So if they\u2019re most concerned with labor, so are bond traders, and so are mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors, and finally so too are mortgage lenders!<\/p>\n<p><strong>And that\u2019s how you get lower mortgage rates, despite all that\u2019s going on.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>To cap it all off, mortgage rates are lower, but still above recent levels, so they remain inflated because of current events.<\/p>\n<p>It just appears they don\u2019t need to be as inflated as they were in March on expectations things will get better, and this too shall pass. As these things always seem to.<\/p>\n<p>Final caveat; Mortgage rates could still turn higher depending on what transpires in the coming weeks and months, so don\u2019t get too comfortable here nor look a gift horse in the mouth!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Read on:<\/span> Should I lock or float my mortgage rate?<\/p>\n<div class=\"abh_box abh_box_down abh_box_fancy\">\n<div class=\"abh_tab_content\">\n<section class=\"vcard author abh_about_tab abh_tab\" itemscope=\"\" itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" style=\"display:block\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"> <img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<p>Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"abh_posts_tab abh_tab\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<div class=\"abh_name\">Latest posts by Colin Robertson <span class=\"abh_allposts\">(see all)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=6b6796d2cb72bbab&amp;include_text_results=1&amp;loan_product=PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS&amp;result_count=10&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;redirect_no_results=1&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/why-are-mortgage-rates-falling-with-the-strait-of-hormuz-still-closed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In somewhat astonishing fashion, at least to me, mortgage rates have been falling all month. And by a fair amount. After a really ugly March, in which rates surged from sub-6% levels to around 6.625%, they\u2019ve since come down quite a bit. At last glance, the 30-year fixed was back around 6.30%, which by all<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[216],"tags":[3256,791,9840,417,261,9839],"class_list":{"0":"post-27600","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mortgage","8":"tag-closed","9":"tag-falling","10":"tag-hormuz","11":"tag-mortgage","12":"tag-rates","13":"tag-strait"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}