{"id":27388,"date":"2026-04-08T21:36:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T21:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27388"},"modified":"2026-04-08T21:36:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T21:36:34","slug":"mortgage-rates-drop-on-ceasefire-but-beware-of-the-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=27388","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Drop on Ceasefire, But Beware of the Bounce"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Mortgage rates continue to move lower, extending the rally from last week due to a two-week \u201cceasefire\u201d in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>However, there have already been reports of multiple events including a massive bombardment in Lebanon since the ceasefire was apparently agreed to.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, it\u2019s unclear how much of a ceasefire this really is, and at this point I\u2019m surprised the markets are still rallying as much as they are.<\/p>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget2\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/text\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=169cc4cc198062c0&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;result_count=3&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<p>So while mortgage rates will be lower today, my guess is lenders will be cautious lowering rates too much.<\/p>\n<p>That could also mean that any benefit seen today could wind up being short-lived.<\/p>\n<h2>Lower Mortgage Rates as Ceasefire Leads to Oil Price Dump<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-42464\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/bondyieldsceasefire.png\" alt=\"bond yields ceasefire\" width=\"609\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/bondyieldsceasefire.png 609w, https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/bondyieldsceasefire-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\"><\/p>\n<p>The two-week ceasefire <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/04\/08\/nx-s1-5777291\/iran-war-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reportedly<\/a> agreed to yesterday at the eleventh hour has resulted in a global market rally.<\/p>\n<p>Stock prices surged and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/US10Y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bond yields came down<\/a> as oil prices fell below $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, if we rewind back to the end of February, oil prices were around $70, well below the current price of $95.<\/p>\n<p>And the 30-year fixed was sub-6%, far below the 6.375% or 6.5% quote you might see today.<\/p>\n<p>So it\u2019s a bit of a one step forward, two steps back situation. Sure, we can cheer the victory, but the bigger picture is still somewhat grim.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, there have multiple reports of heavy fighting since the ceasefire was announced.<\/p>\n<p>A major offensive in Lebanon carried out by Israel, reports of drone activity, uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iran will demand a toll, and now <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/live\/iran-war-israel-trump-04-08-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a closure of the Strait<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Once you start to dig into the details, and look at what\u2019s happening versus what\u2019s being said, it doesn\u2019t look so great.<\/p>\n<p>This might mean to take the win today, but be cautious if you\u2019re trying to decide between locking and floating a mortgage rate.<\/p>\n<h2>Mortgage Rates Might Bounce Back After a Nice Rally<\/h2>\n<p>This all leads me to believe that mortgage rates might suffer another setback soon.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ve fallen from recent highs of around 6.625% to roughly 6.375%, meaning they\u2019ve come down about 0.25%.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a decent move lower, but they remain about 0.375% above those pre-war levels.<\/p>\n<p>And with the ceasefire decidedly tenuous, it wouldn\u2019t shock me to see a mortgage rate reversal sometime in the next few days or weeks.<\/p>\n<p>While things may have deescalated in the near-term, the future looks very uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>Even today, just less than 24 hours after the ceasefire, we\u2019ve seen intense fighting and conflict.<\/p>\n<p>For me, it kind of paints the picture that it\u2019s not going to be a quick resolution, as hopeful as the markets might be right now.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, all we did was pull ourselves off the brink of something really bad. We didn\u2019t solve anything.<\/p>\n<p>Remember that prior to this crisis, the Strait of Hormuz was wide open and oil\/energy prices weren\u2019t a concern.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation was falling and everything appeared to be moving in the right direction.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019d be hard-pressed to say that today.<\/p>\n<div class=\"abh_box abh_box_down abh_box_fancy\">\n<div class=\"abh_tab_content\">\n<section class=\"vcard author abh_about_tab abh_tab\" itemscope=\"\" itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" style=\"display:block\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"> <img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<p>Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"abh_posts_tab abh_tab\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<div class=\"abh_name\">Latest posts by Colin Robertson <span class=\"abh_allposts\">(see all)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=6b6796d2cb72bbab&amp;include_text_results=1&amp;loan_product=PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS&amp;result_count=10&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;redirect_no_results=1&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/mortgage-rates-drop-on-ceasefire-but-beware-of-the-bounce\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates continue to move lower, extending the rally from last week due to a two-week \u201cceasefire\u201d in the Middle East. However, there have already been reports of multiple events including a massive bombardment in Lebanon since the ceasefire was apparently agreed to. In other words, it\u2019s unclear how much of a ceasefire this really<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10495,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[216],"tags":[4751,225,10108,891,417,261],"class_list":{"0":"post-27388","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mortgage","8":"tag-beware","9":"tag-bounce","10":"tag-ceasefire","11":"tag-drop","12":"tag-mortgage","13":"tag-rates"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}