{"id":26458,"date":"2026-03-12T05:40:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T05:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=26458"},"modified":"2026-03-12T05:40:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T05:40:29","slug":"high-oil-prices-may-affect-2027-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=26458","title":{"rendered":"High oil prices may affect 2027 forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108276767\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Kate Wieser | Moment | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Elevated oil prices may push up inflation in the coming months, which could lead to higher estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Geo\/political tensions are driving up the price of oil right now which will continue to drive up my estimates of the COLA,&#8221; Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, said via email.<\/p>\n<p>Based on new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">government inflation data<\/a> for February, the Social Security <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/cola\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">COLA<\/a> may be 1.7% in 2027, according to Johnson. That&#8217;s up from Johnson&#8217;s estimate of 1.2% last month.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, the Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan senior group, <a href=\"https:\/\/seniorsleague.org\/social-security-doomsday-clock-ticks-closer-to-midnight-as-tscl-predicts-2027-cola-at-2-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecasts a 2.8%<\/a> cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, unchanged from its estimate from last month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108276699\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108276699\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000406295\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"><\/span><span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"><\/a>How Social Security annual increases compare<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is an annual change to benefits to help monthly payments keep pace with inflation.<\/p>\n<p>For 2026, about 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment.<strong> <\/strong>That prompted a $56-per-month increase to retirement benefits, on average, the Social Security Administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/news\/en\/press\/releases\/2025-10-24.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said in October<\/a>.<strong> <\/strong>However, those increases may vary, particularly with annual increases to Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted from monthly benefit checks.<\/p>\n<p>Social Security COLAs have averaged about 3.1% in the past decade, according to the agency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<ul>\n<li>Social Security 2027 COLA forecast may rise with high oil prices<\/li>\n<li>You can&#8217;t &#8216;borrow your way out of debt,&#8217; expert says, but more people are trying<\/li>\n<li>Here&#8217;s the inflation breakdown for February 2026 \u2014 in one chart<\/li>\n<li>SAVE plan used by millions of student loan borrowers is over, court orders<\/li>\n<li>Identity theft and your taxes: It&#8217;s &#8216;a terrible reverse lottery,&#8217; one victim says<\/li>\n<li>As Iran war disrupts oil prices, consumers could be &#8216;hammered,&#8217; economist says<\/li>\n<li>Million-dollar earners have already stopped paying into Social Security for 2026<\/li>\n<li>Women and the K-shaped economy: Lower pay, affordability issues reduce spending<\/li>\n<li>Small 401(k) accounts may follow workers to their next job \u2014 except Roth money<\/li>\n<li>In a jobs apocalypse, look to &#8216;AI-proof&#8217; skilled trades, career experts say<\/li>\n<li>Middle-income homebuyers have $30,000 more buying power than a year ago<\/li>\n<li>Average IRS tax refund is up 10.6%, early filing data shows<\/li>\n<li>GOP &#8216;big beautiful bill&#8217; to deal &#8216;shock&#8217; to the ACA marketplace: health experts<\/li>\n<li>As millions claim Trump&#8217;s &#8216;no tax on overtime&#8217; deduction, filers risk mistakes<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P 500 shrugs off 1% daily drops all the time. Investors can too, advisors say<\/li>\n<li>CNBC&#8217;s Financial Advisor 100: Best financial advisors, top firms ranked<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>In some recent years, beneficiaries have seen much higher annual increases as inflation spiked following the Covid pandemic. In 2022 and 2023, the COLAs were 5.9% and 8.7%, respectively. Both increases were the highest in four decades at the time.<\/p>\n<p>In the years since, the Social Security COLA increases have fallen closer to average.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"><\/a>Factors affecting 2027 COLA forecast <\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The 12-month inflation rate rose 2.4%, according to consumer price index data for February released on Wednesday. <\/p>\n<p>That data did not include recent oil shocks prompted by the Iran war. Gasoline fell 5.6% over the past 12 months, according to the February CPI data. However, March data will likely show a jump in those prices, which could in turn push up the 2027 COLA forecast, according to Johnson.<\/p>\n<p>Retirees are already facing higher utility bills, as the costs of home heating oil, natural gas and electricity have risen, she said.<\/p>\n<p>Tariff policies may also lead to higher consumer costs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The Social Security COLA is calculated by comparing third-quarter inflation data for the current year to the previous year&#8217;s third-quarter data. If there is an increase from year to year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, that determines the percentage of the COLA.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, the COLA can lag behind higher inflation, or be higher than the current pace of inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The CPI-W increased 2.2% over the past 12 months as of February \u2014 lower than the 2.8% COLA for 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Yet how inflation affects individuals and households varies depending on their spending habits, or personal inflation rate.<\/p>\n<p>The COLA for the following year is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/11\/social-security-cola-oil-prices.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kate Wieser | Moment | Getty Images Elevated oil prices may push up inflation in the coming months, which could lead to higher estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. &#8220;Geo\/political tensions are driving up the price of oil right now which will continue to drive up my estimates of the COLA,&#8221; Mary Johnson,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[196],"tags":[682,1688,929,3252,124],"class_list":{"0":"post-26458","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-finance-news","8":"tag-affect","9":"tag-forecast","10":"tag-high","11":"tag-oil","12":"tag-prices"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26458"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26458\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}