{"id":26127,"date":"2026-03-02T21:31:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T21:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=26127"},"modified":"2026-03-02T21:31:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T21:31:46","slug":"mortgage-rates-jump-after-iran-attack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=26127","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Typically, mortgage rates fall shortly after geopolitical incidents unfold.<\/p>\n<p>This time, they bounced higher on the Iran attack news, with 10-year bond yields climbing a big nine basis points on the day.<\/p>\n<p>That will result in higher 30-year fixed mortgage rates just days after a joint U.S.-Israeli operation took out Iranian leadership.<\/p>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget2\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/text\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=169cc4cc198062c0&amp;loan_type=PURCH&amp;result_count=3&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<p>The unexpected move led to an immediate increase in oil prices as stability in the Middle East is once again threatened.<\/p>\n<p>Often, investors will seek so-called \u201csafe haven\u201d assets like government bonds when these things happen, but so far that hasn\u2019t been the case.<\/p>\n<h2>Mortgage Rates Back Above 6% on War Rumblings<\/h2>\n<p>Mortgage rates are back above the key 6% threshold to start the week after experiencing their best week in years.<\/p>\n<p>The 30-year fixed had been sub-6% for much of last week, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022 by some measures.<\/p>\n<p>But now we\u2019re back to a 6-handle as the conflict in the Middle East plays out.<\/p>\n<p>The initial reaction by investors was to sell pretty much everything, including stocks and bonds.<\/p>\n<p>Often, investors will make the \u201cflight to safety\u201d trade and move from high-risk stocks to low-risk bonds. But today it\u2019s been a wider selloff.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, MBS prices are sharply lower, which will translate to higher mortgage rates for consumers.<\/p>\n<p>Per Mortgage News Daily, MBS prices <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">were<\/a> \u201csignificantly weaker\u201d to start the week, with \u201cstrong downward movement\u201d likely to push mortgage rates up quite a bit higher.<\/p>\n<p>And indeed they were back up to 6.12%, a big one-day move higher (+ 13 bps) that puts them firmly back into the 6s.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s prior read from Friday was 5.99%.<\/p>\n<p>They could stay there for some time as well, unless we see that typical move into bonds like we usually do when there are world conflicts.<\/p>\n<h2>Spiking Oil Prices Puts Pressure Back on Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>The issue this time is oil prices have surged higher in the wake of the conflict as major supply disruptions are expected.<\/p>\n<p>For example, Saudi Arabia\u2019s largest oil refinery <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-02\/saudi-arabia-s-ras-tanura-refinery-shuts-down-after-drone-attack\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">halted production<\/a> after it was hit by a drone.<\/p>\n<p>And Iran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/middle-east-news\/2026-02-28\/ty-article\/.premium\/iran-reportedly-closes-strait-of-hormuz-the-worlds-most-vital-oil-export-route\/0000019c-a528-defa-abdf-bffd65440000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reportedly<\/a> shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is referred to as the world\u2019s most important oil route.<\/p>\n<p>That led to a big jump in oil prices, which can\/will trickle down to higher prices at the pump, along with higher prices on goods as increased transportation costs are passed along to consumers.<\/p>\n<p>This can exacerbate inflation, which has been an ongoing battle and one we seemed to finally be making headway on.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so if this persists, expect mortgage rates to be higher all else equal.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s the big question. On the one hand, bond yields (and mortgage rates) are a lot higher today.<\/p>\n<p>On the other, they remain near lows not seen since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>So while today and perhaps this week might be a setback, if you zoom out, they\u2019re still at the lowest levels in years.<\/p>\n<p>However, this level of global instability could dampen the home buying mood so it\u2019s an intangible we need to consider as well, rates aside.<\/p>\n<h2>Will Mortgage Rates Resume Their Move Lower Soon?<\/h2>\n<p>Like prior conflicts, this situation <em>could<\/em> prove to be short-lived, and mortgage rates may resume their path lower.<\/p>\n<p>While bond yields jumped today, they had fallen quite a bit leading up to this incident.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the 10-year bond yield was hovering around 4.30% a month ago, and fell below 4% last week.<\/p>\n<p>Even after today\u2019s move higher, it remains fairly close to 4%.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the 30-year fixed, which had been priced around 6.20% a month ago, had fallen to around 6%.<\/p>\n<p>So despite rates rising about .125% today on the news, we remain in a good place and the fact that bonds had already been on a winning streak might explain the pullback today.<\/p>\n<p>That remains to be seen, and in the meantime you\u2019ll need to be extra cautious if floating your mortgage rate.<\/p>\n<p>Expect a lot of volatility with mortgage rates as this very fluid situation continues to develop, but remember that the 30-year fixed remains near a 3.5-year low, which is the big silver lining.<\/p>\n<div class=\"abh_box abh_box_down abh_box_fancy\">\n<div class=\"abh_tab_content\">\n<section class=\"vcard author abh_about_tab abh_tab\" itemscope=\"\" itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" style=\"display:block\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"> <img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<p>Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"abh_posts_tab abh_tab\">\n<div class=\"abh_image\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/gravatar\/headshot1.png\" class=\"photo\" width=\"250\" alt=\"Colin Robertson\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"abh_text\">\n<div class=\"abh_name\">Latest posts by Colin Robertson <span class=\"abh_allposts\">(see all)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <iframe id=\"bbm_widget\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.icanbuy.com\/c\/standard\/us\/en\/mortgage\/tables\/Mortgage.aspx?siteid=6b6796d2cb72bbab&amp;include_text_results=1&amp;loan_product=PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS&amp;result_count=10&amp;loan_type=REFI&amp;redirect_no_results=1&amp;listingbtnbgcolor=ff7207&amp;searchbtnbgcolor=ff7207\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/mortgage-rates-jump-after-iran-attack\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Typically, mortgage rates fall shortly after geopolitical incidents unfold. This time, they bounced higher on the Iran attack news, with 10-year bond yields climbing a big nine basis points on the day. That will result in higher 30-year fixed mortgage rates just days after a joint U.S.-Israeli operation took out Iranian leadership. The unexpected move<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[216],"tags":[4297,6967,2052,417,261],"class_list":{"0":"post-26127","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mortgage","8":"tag-attack","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-jump","11":"tag-mortgage","12":"tag-rates"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}