{"id":18107,"date":"2025-07-15T02:33:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T02:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=18107"},"modified":"2025-07-15T02:33:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T02:33:41","slug":"the-past-months-mortgage-rate-rally-has-nearly-been-entirely-erased","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=18107","title":{"rendered":"The Past Month\u2019s Mortgage Rate Rally Has Nearly Been Entirely Erased"},"content":{"rendered":"
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What a difference a month makes. Mortgage rates were close to eight month lows about two weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Today? They\u2019re only 17 basis points (0.17%) away from 7% again, which explains the ongoing shift to a buyer\u2019s market.<\/p>\n

It seems whenever we make some solid progress, it\u2019s another step back to where we started.<\/p>\n

The latest drivers of higher mortgage rates have been resilient jobs data and another round of tariff drama.<\/p>\n

If this continues, it\u2019s going to be difficult to see any sustained improvement any time soon.<\/p>\n

Resilient Jobs Data and Tariff Drama Pushes Mortgage Rates Back Toward 7%<\/h2>\n
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The 30-year fixed began the month of July at a relatively attractive 6.67%, before marching back up toward 7%.<\/p>\n

At last glance, it stood at 6.83% after suffering another series of setbacks, the first being an unexpectedly hot jobs report.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s been the culprit for a while now, as labor has yet to really break, and the Fed has noted it\u2019s labor they\u2019re looking at most closely.<\/p>\n

There have been scattered reports on the upside and downside, but we\u2019ve yet to see consistently bad labor data.<\/p>\n

Until that happens, it seems we\u2019re kind of stuck at higher levels. Though before the June jobs report beat (147k vs. 110k), mortgage rates were beginning to show some real promise.<\/p>\n

In fact, the 30-year fixed had fallen to 6.67%, per Mortgage News Daily<\/a>, its lowest point of 2025 other than a blip in early April related to tariff drama.<\/p>\n

Before that, you had to go all the way back to October 2024 to see lower mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

And if you recall September 2024, when mortgage rates slipped very close to 6%, it was an entirely different housing market.<\/p>\n

One full of promise and excitement that the high mortgage rates could finally be behind us. We also experienced a mini refi boom that had lenders feeling a bit more optimistic.<\/p>\n

However, it was yet another head fake as hot jobs and now renewed tariff pressures push rates back up.<\/p>\n

The latest being a 35% tariff on Canada<\/a>, 30% on the EU and Mexico<\/a>, and a tariff threat to Russia<\/a> as well via \u201c100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia\u2019s remaining trade partners if a peace deal with Ukraine\u201d isn\u2019t reached within 50 days.<\/p>\n

So if you thought the tariff stuff was over, welp, it\u2019s not. And who knows what\u2019s next.<\/p>\n

Perhaps I spoke too soon when I said the tariff stuff was in the rear-view mirror.<\/p>\n

CPI Report Tomorrow Could Shed Light on Tariff Impact<\/h2>\n

Speaking of the tariffs, tomorrow we get the ever-important CPI report, which will be the first time we get to see the impact of tariffs.<\/p>\n

Though some have argued<\/a> that \u201cmany companies stockpiled goods in advance of the tariffs,\u201d meaning any price increases might not make their way into the data until that inventory is sold off.<\/p>\n

And with new tariffs being threatened once again, some beginning August 1st, it continues to make it difficult to determine who exactly is\/will pay for the tariffs.<\/p>\n

Between the stockpiling and the fresh tariff threats, we might have to be even more patient than we already have been waiting for a possible uptick in inflation to no longer be a concern.<\/p>\n

But the Fed has made it clear this is why they haven\u2019t cut their own fed funds rate, which has increasingly frustrated the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

So much so that FHFA Director Bill Pulte issued a statement<\/a> about Powell supposedly considering an early resignation.<\/p>\n

Those reports haven\u2019t been substantiated to my knowledge, and will likely do nothing to deter Powell as he waits for more data to be collected.<\/p>\n

This is kind of the irony of the current situation as the admin stokes inflation concerns while simultaneously asking for rate cuts.<\/strong><\/p>\n

You can\u2019t have it all, but if you still want it all, at least provide some clarity on tariffs and don\u2019t keep making new threats and raising the stakes.<\/p>\n

Surely that\u2019s no way to get bond traders to ramp up their purchases and bring yields down.<\/p>\n

The good news is the 10-year bond yield seems to be back toward the top of its range (4.50%) at about 4.43%.<\/p>\n

And the longer this goes on, the more mortgages we\u2019ll originate with higher rates, which at some point will be ripe for a refinance.<\/p>\n

Read on:<\/span> Mortgage Rates Are Still Expected to Come Down by the End of 2025<\/p>\n

(photo: Scouse Smurf<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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\"Colin<\/div>\n
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Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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\"Colin<\/div>\n
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