{"id":12788,"date":"2025-04-01T18:49:28","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T18:49:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=12788"},"modified":"2025-04-01T18:49:28","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T18:49:28","slug":"atlanta-feds-gdp-growth-predictor-says-q1-rate-was-2-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/?p=12788","title":{"rendered":"Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDP Growth Predictor Says Q1 Rate Was -2.8%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Risk management and mitigation to reduce exposure for financial investment, projects, engineering, … More<\/span> businesses. Concept with manager’s hand turning knob to low level. Reduction strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/fbs-accordion>getty<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Unless you\u2019ve got a large financial cushion and have bet against the economy, you likely have no reason to rejoice in the idea that gross domestic product growth is slowing.<\/p>\n

Crashing Economy?<\/h2>\n

The disturbing news is that it could be slowing far faster than the overall Federal Reserve expected, potentially into the realm of contraction that could set the stage for a recession. The Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDP growth predictor\u2019s estimate<\/a> on March 28 was that the first quarter would see -2.8% growth.<\/p>\n

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Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mathematical projection of GDP for Q1 2025<\/p>\n

<\/fbs-accordion>Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Somewhat more optimistically, a small group of 14 economists polled by CNBC<\/a> estimated that first-quarter growth will only reach 0.3% \u201cas tariffs stoke stagflation conditions.\u201d (The original definition of stagflation from the 1970s was the combination of high inflation, high unemployment, and low growth, but it\u2019s more frequently being taken as higher inflation and low growth these days.)<\/p>\n

Either of these outcomes would seem far off from the Fed\u2019s mid-March economic projections<\/a> that 2025 would see 1.7% GDP growth. That was already down from the December 2.1% estimate.<\/p>\n

Not to overestimate the estimates: As the Atlanta Fed makes clear, its predictor isn\u2019t an official forecast. It\u2019s a mathematical model based on available economic data that doesn\u2019t include past reports and analyses that might affect current interpretation. The opinions of 14 economists, collected by CNBC, are a limited sample and could be far off.<\/p>\n

Any growing pessimism isn\u2019t a product of the ether. Multiple trends are coming together in a macroeconomic tapestry. One is the danger that a lack of federal government fiscal discipline has increased the possibility of yet another credit downgrade. The Congressional Budget Office\u2019s projection of future deficits is discouraging. The labor market is under strain, even as unemployment remains low. Tariff disruption is jarring markets with the additional potential of driving inflation up.<\/p>\n

Developing Factors<\/h2>\n

No single one of these factors would be enough to trip the economy. But each comes with a probabilistic potential for disruption. The more factors that exist, the larger the possibility that something might happen.<\/p>\n

A slowdown in GDP growth, or even a reversal \u2014 remembering the rough rule of thumb that two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth means a recession \u2014 is an obvious undesired outcome.<\/p>\n

There are also others. One would be rising unemployment that was a byproduct of either a slowdown or a full-on recession. Consumer worry is another.<\/p>\n

The Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index<\/a> fell for the fourth consecutive month and their \u201cexpectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low,\u201d said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board, in prepared remarks. Optimism about future income, which had been strong, \u201clargely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers\u2019 assessments of their personal situations,\u201d she added. Consumer spending is about 69% of GDP and has been holding up the economy.<\/p>\n

Maybe the overall Fed take will be right, although that is expressed as an annualized figure, leaving room for a bad quarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Risk management and mitigation to reduce exposure for financial investment, projects, engineering, … More businesses. Concept with manager’s hand turning knob to low level. Reduction strategy. getty Unless you\u2019ve got a large financial cushion and have bet against the economy, you likely have no reason to rejoice in the idea that gross domestic product growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12789,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[196],"tags":[1540,418,4460,735,5301,138],"class_list":{"0":"post-12788","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-finance-news","8":"tag-atlanta","9":"tag-feds","10":"tag-gdp","11":"tag-growth","12":"tag-predictor","13":"tag-rate"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finderica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}